Trump Against the World: Maybe this Mayhem is Needed?

When I was in college, I was required to read Crane Brinton's Anatomy of Revolution (1938) for Poli Sci 101. It was one of the college texts that I can honestly say I devoured. I find myself remembering it these days because I think it has much to say about us today. Others must find something in it as well because it is still in print.

Basically, Brinton analyzed four revolutions: the English (civil war), French, American, and Russian,
looking for common patterns and outcomes.

While it reminds me a little of Hari Seldon in the Isaac Asimov Foundation series (Seldon used mathematics and what he called psychohistory to predict the future), I still find Brinton's work interesting. My own conclusion,  based on his definitions and predictions, is that the US has been for some time about to undergo an inevitable revaluation of its founding principles, if not a second revolution.

Revolutions commence, he writes, when there is some form of financial and social discontent---deficits, taxation, economic inequality, personal resentments, lack of opportunity--that leads to armed resistance. Demands are made, the government attempts to suppress the movement, but ultimately the rebels win.

Once in power, the second stage begins. It becomes clear that the successful rebels are not unified although the movement was swept into power by feelings of hope that things can change and be better. Separate factions within the revolutionaries begin to compete, and those in leadership positions are besieged by conservatives on one side and extremists on the other. The extremists generally prevail and institute a reign of dictatorship and suppression of dissent if not of terror.

The third stage is a convalescence in a way while people recover from the shocks of the previous period. But this relative quiet is marked by the emergence of an unconstitutional tyrant and an attempt to return to some of the prerevolutionary values.

The US was very fortunate in not having the reign of terror as happened in France but I don't think that exempts us as much as shapes a unique American response to vast changes in our lives. Their industrial revolution has become our technological revolution, and perhaps those are the two revolutions with the most impact.

So, today we find ourselves potentially facing some of these same realities. It's fascinating to see how they might work out.

We certainly have the preconditions for revolution: economic disparity between the 1% and the rest of us; complaints about taxation (whether relatively real or not); lack of educational opportunity given the high costs; perceived lack of economic opportunity in the failure to plan for changing workforce requirements; and the tendency to scapegoat in assigning blame. These factors were ripe for exploitation, as indeed they have been in the current political process. It would seem that right now the revolutionaries have won.

But then comes the second stage. History suggests that there will be a falling out among the different groups. The evangelical Christians will not find their agenda fulfilled; populist support will fade if extravagant promises inevitably cannot be kept; the wealthy will use their financial resources to try to maintain the advantages of their wealth; and the people will generally become a-political just trying to survive. The leader will find himself besieged by competing demands and will yield moral ground to the extremists who are motivated by the zeal of their beliefs. There is a potential for conflict and perhaps even civil war. One hopes not.

Still with me?

The only thing hopeful about all this is that Brinton says it will be followed by a period of quiet and rebuilding. I think it will be something like party-goers carrying their shell-shocked selves back to their homes in the morning. It will be then that the US can look again at the founding principles and re-formulate the standards by which this country conducts itself. Perhaps they will not be exactly the same, but certainly I hope that they will emerge from national discussion of who we are and who we want to be, because these are the questions we will be invited to ask ourselves.